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General Knowledge
Not all opportunities are created equal. Some opportunities have limited downside and a lot of upside. Others have a heavy downside but very little upside. In general, people don’t look at opportunities from this perspective. Usually their opportunity evaluation is simply based on effort, comfort, and familiarity.
Generally speaking, people often default to:
How hard is this?
Am I comfortable doing this?
Is this familiar to me?
That can’t be further away from the best way to evaluate big decisions. The key questions that should be asked are what’s the risk and what’s the potential return?
When it comes to opportunities and their evaluation, there are two main rules.
Rule 1
Focus on learning how to evaluate the risk as opposed to avoiding it.
Risk isn’t the enemy. Misjudging it is. Every opportunity has risks. The goal isn’t to eliminate it, it’s to understand it.
Look at what could go wrong. Be honest about it. Then zoom out and ask the more important question: What could go right and how big is that outcome?
If the upside meaningfully outweighs the downside, you’ve got something worth considering. That’s how you start spotting real opportunities.
Rule 2
Success is in the little things.
We tend to think success comes from one big move. We want to believe it comes in one swoop, but deep down we know it doesn’t.
It comes from doing a lot of little things right. Stacking small, smart bets.
It comes from stringing together opportunities where:
The downside is limited
The upside is meaningful
The cost of being wrong is manageable
Make enough of those bets, and something will hit.
Not everything will work, but it also doesn’t need to.
You don’t need to win every time. You just need to win more than you lose and most importantly, you need to win big when it matters.
If this hit, you’ll get more of it every week.
No fluff. Just clear thinking on money, mindset, and movement.
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